The possibility that one or two unicorns could “join the pantheon” is of course what keeps so many investors interested.
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The market prefers thematic investment cases – plausible arguments as to why it should now be buying into artificial intelligence, say, or autonomous cars.
Factors that are put down to a CEO’s skills may actually just be the result of randomness or luck.
While a low-volatility strategy has worked in the past, we have our doubts as to whether it will to continue to do so.
The average number of equations per economics article has mushroomed over time.
Dress-down policies can be fraught with danger.
On the dangers of judging investment portfolios on a sectoral basis.
Back-testing is particularly popular in financial circles. Should it be?
House price inflation has only moved in one direction over the course of the last two years. How much further can it go?
Looking too regularly at portfolio performance can be counterproductive and actually prevent investors from taking on an appropriate level of risk.
Regression to the mean is a bigger and stronger phenomenon than most people tend to recognise.
The enthusiasm that greeted rumours of a takeover bid by Glencore for Rio Tinto to create a £100bn mining and commodities-trading giant was in no way dampened by the sector’s current poor health.
Forecasts serve the purpose of helping us to see where we may have gone wrong and thereby, over time, enabling us to improve as investors.
'Evasive shareholder meetings', a paper by two US business school professors explains why the location of Annual General Meetings matters for investors.
How can you sidestep the behavioural bias of buying high and selling low?
New information you have acquired will sometimes give you greater confidence to move away from the truth
The current lack of market volatility is lulling many investors into a false sense of security.
If the Leibowitz, Bova and Kogelman paper is right, you can only have any sort of certainty over a long – sometimes a very long – time horizon.
What is EBITDA, what it is not and why we use it.
Do stock prices reliably rise (or fall) when estimates are too low (or too high)?
Most of the current hedge fund-bashing is being done for the wrong reasons.
Why those looking for reasons to be cheerful about the US economy would probably do better to look elsewhere than car sales.
Just because you think something is a good idea, it does not necessarily follow it will be a good investment.
What gets into academics when they title their work? 'Private equity’s diversification illusion – economic co-movement and fair value reporting' hardly seems calculated to set pulses racing...
One snag about offering any sort of narrative in an investment case, is that it only highlights one possible version of the future
Most human beings love a story and yet any narrative about why something is or behaves in a certain way is likely to distract our attention from the bare facts.
Ian Kelly argues that the US is now a dangerous place to go fishing for high-dividend stocks.
People may think of fund managers as having good and bad runs and look to invest with those enjoying the former, but the reality is a lot more random.
Uralkali, the worlds largest potash company, in common with all the other potash producers – was simply making too much money, and when that happens, other people begin to sit up and take notice.
For about five years now, Greece has been giving the euro area authorities a test in economics and politics. The test must be retaken until the authorities produce the right answers.
Visiting Professor of International Economic Policy, Princeton University14 articles | View profile
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